Business-Insider

EURUSD: Reverses Its Two-Week Upside Gains, Risks Lower Prices Towards The 1.4310 Level

EURUSD- EUR closed the week lower wiping out almost all of its two weeks gains to end the week on Friday at 1.4504.Having failed ahead of the 2007 peak at 1.4967 and cut through layers of support to trade at the present levels, EUR now risks further decline towards its Jan 22’08 low at 1.4364 with a breach of there opening the door for further weakness targeting the 1.4310 level, its Dec 20’07 low. Breaking and holding below the latter will extend price weakness towards its Sept 28/07 high at 1.4278 followed by its daily 200 ema at 1.4212 and then the 1.272 Fib Ext. at 1.4134.Both the daily and weekly momentum indicators are positive and pushing lower supporting the above view. However, a break back above its Jan 01’08 low/.618 Ret (1.4310-1.4955 rally) at 1.4577/48 followed with a close above the 1.4751/52 zone, its Nov 09’07/Dec 11’07 highs will reduce its short term downside pressure and bring additional gains towards its Feb 02’08/2007 peak at 1.4955/67.On the whole, while the medium term trend continues to point higher, short term weakness suggests further lower prices in the days ahead.


Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Bearish
Short Term –Bearish
Medium Term –Bullish

Performance in %:
Past Week: -2.02%
Past Month: +1.90%
Past Quarter: +2.20%
Year-To-Date: -0.57%

Weekly Range:
High -1.4849
Low -1.4440

GBPUSD: Follows Through To The Downside, Keeps Focus On Its YTD Low at 1.9335.

GBPUSD-A second-week of downside weakness saw the pair taking back most of its recovery gains off the 1.9335 low printed in Jan 22’08 the past week. The said weakness now leaves the pair trading below its weekly 100 ems with further losses envisaged towards its YTD low at 1.9335.Overcoming this level will open up the pathway for more downside weakness aiming at its Mar’07 low at 1.9180 and may be lower. Its daily momentum action remains suggestive of additional downside pressure as they continue to point to the downside.Conversely,nearby resistance on any recovery from here stands at the 1.9507/1.9481 zone, its weekly 100 ema/Jan 11’08 low followed by the 1.9653/23 area, its Aug 17’07 high/.50 Ret (1.8091-2.1160 rally)/Jun 08’07 low and then its daily 50/ Sept 18’07 low/weekly 50 emas at 1.9878/1.9938.Further resistance lies at its psycho resistance at 2.0000 and its .382 Ret (2.1160-1.9335 decline)/daily 100 & 200 emas at 2.0024/61.All in all, with price action and momentum indicators now pointing lower,GBP is poised to head towards the 1.9335 level.


Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Bearish
Medium Term -Bearish

Performance in %:
Past Week: -0.98.%
Past Month: +0.23%
Past Quarter: -3.00 %
Year-To-Date: -2.00%

Weekly Range:
High -1.9787
Low -1.9388


USDJPY: Remains In a Consolidating Mode, Maintains Its Bearish MT Outlook.

USDJPY- USDJPY has been consolidating since hitting a low of 104.97 in Jan 23’08.As long as the it continues to consolidate below the 107.22/55 zone, its Nov 23/26’07 lows or even the 109.13/108.99 zone, its Nov 11’07 / May’06 lows, odds are for the pair to head lower to resume its decline off the 114.46 high registered in Dec 27’07.In such a case, below the 104.97 level should accelerate weakness towards the 104.20 level, which marks its May’04 low with a breach of there paving the way for further downside pressure targeting the 103.63 level, its Mar’05 low and then its Jan’05 low at 101.54.On the upside, breaking decisively above the 107.22/55 zone and the 109.13/108.99 zones is required to reduce downside pressure and turn further upside gains towards its Aug 12’07 low at 111.58 with a loss of there exposing its Sept 12’07 low at 112.60.The pair’s nearer term corrective recovery is now supported by its daily stochastics which is heading higher.Overall,USDJPY’s present price action remains corrective and should turn and head lower in continuation of its medium term downtrend on completing that recovery.

Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bullish
Short Term -Bearish
Medium Term -Bearish

Performance in %:
Past Week: +0.77%
Past Month: -4.91%
Past Quarter: -2.67%
Year-To-Date: -3.96%

Weekly Range:
High -107.83
Low -105.92


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