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GBP-USD @ 1.9731/35...Support at 1.9700 & 1.9652-50
R: 1.9750 / 1.9800 / 1.9838
S: 1.9652-50 / 1.9620-00
GBP-USD closed with losses yet again last week and it has got off to a weak start once again in what is a very important week for the pair. The UK Trade Balance and the BOE interest rate meeting both are on 10-Jan, Thursday, with the BOE meeting the most important. The futures market on interest rates is discounting a 40% probability of a 25bps rate cut to 5.25%. See UK Bond yields chart at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpsin00.shtml

Technically, GBP-USD is above an important Support region near 1.9650 – 1.9620, which held twice last year in June-07 (1.9622) and in Aug-07 (1.9652). This indicates that a bounce could be seen in the GBP in the next few days possibly towards 1.9900 or above. However a break below that Support region could produce another sharp fall towards 1.9300.

Today the Support is at 1.9652-50 and then at 1.9600. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.9750 and then at 1.9810. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 1.9838.

GBP-JPY is currently trading near its lowest level since Aug-2006, and is also on its strong Support at 213.00-214.00, which falls on a trendline on the weekly charts joining the lows of 148.29 (Sep-2000) and 193.29 (July-2005). A bounce may be seen in the cross if the GBP-USD fails to break below 1.9652-20 region.

EUR-GBP is currently near its highest level since Jan-1997 and is just below its psychological level of 0.7500. The Support for the Cross is now at 0.7400, which needs to be broken to question the potential for further rally.

See UK BOE interest rate and UK Libor chart at http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/...ts/ukboe.shtml

USD-CHF @ 1.1159/64...Holding Short
R: 1.1200-10 / 1.1250
S: 1.1140 / 1.1100
After the sharp fall last week in USD-CHF there has been a sharp recovery so far in the day, which could carry on further towards 1.1200-10 later on in the day. A further recovery could be seen later on, if the Resistance of 1.1200-10 is broken on the upside. Immediately above 1.1200-10, the Resistance would come in at 1.1250.

On the downside currently the Support is at 1.1140 and then at 1.1100. We are holding a Short position currently, expecting the Resistance of 1.1200-10 to hold.

Holding:
USD 10K Short at 1.1155, SL 1.1225, TP 1.0990




AUD-USD @ 0.8728/33...Support at 0.8690-88
R: 0.8740 / 0.8800
S: 0.8690-88 / 0.8650
AUD-USD had a sharp fall on Friday and has come down to an important Support at 0.8688, on the trendline on the Daily Candles joining the lows of 0.7674 (17-Aug-07) and 0.8559 (19-Dec-07). This could produce a bounce in the pair once again towards 0.8900. However, if this is broken on a sustained basis then a fall towards 0.8650 and 0.8550 may be seen later on in the week. Australia’s trade balance comes in on 10-Jan. See chart at http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/.../autrbal.shtml

For today the immediate Support is at 0.8690-88, on the trendline mentioned above. Below this the Support is at 0.8650. The statistically projected Max Low for day would come in at 0.8624. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.8740 and 0.8810-18, the statistically projected Max High for the day.

We would be looking to take a Long if the Support at 0.8690 holds.

Happy Trading!
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Analysis by FXThoughts