Page copy protected against web site content infringement by Copyscape
Google

Thursday, November 08, 2007

The Day The World Changed

No it didn't blow up in one day, Christmas is still coming and your kids will be OK. That's why i changed the title from "Ended" to "Changed". But they may need to learn a bit more about Chinese culture then was taught when we were in school. Two events that occured today will be where the dividing line in the shift of economic power from West to East will officially be noted.

Citibank will go bust unless The Federal Reserve prints as much money as it needs and gives it to them. Even so, the bail-out will be seen as further evidence of hospice care, much as the so-called SIV superfund is being viewed.

At the same time PetroChina tripled in value from it's IPO and it's valuation is over one trillion dollars. That makes it a bigger company then ExxonMobil and General Electric COMBINED and it makes the state-owned oil company worth more then the entire Russiian stock market. It also means that 5 of the 10 largest companies in the world are from China and it also makes the Chinese stock market bigger then London's.

And unless they pull the plug on the S&P 500 today-

1. Carry trades will unwind as the dollar strengthens vs. the high yielding currencies and depreciates vs. the Yen

2. Gold and Oil will fall in price.

3. U.S. debt will be bought, especially the shorter end of the yield curve.

4. Fear indexes like the VIX and Ted Spread will appreciate.

5. It will become more and more difficult for Hong Kong to maintain it's dollar peg as the demand for HKD (needed to buy Chinese H-shares) rises. The Hong Kong government and economy benefit from the peg so it's doubtful that they will abandon it however, currency specualtion may force the issue. De-pegging the HKD would cause it to rise rapidily and dramatically vs the dollar.

Thanks for reading my post and please do not vote usesless UNLESS you have a specific comment to make that expresses your opinion. Any and all opinions are always welcome whether you agree with me or not. If you're interested in finding out more about my trade room (ten dollars a week, no minimum number of weeks) contact newstraderfx@yahoo.com. Thanks.

0 komentar: