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Sunday, October 07, 2007

Related Topics: Relative Index Performance – RIP
Standardized Unexpected Events - SUE

I. Context of the Trade
a. Relative Index Performance – RIP
Use TD Supply and Demand Lines to determine expected turning points.
b. Use Standardized Unexpected Events – SUE to confirm expected currency direction.
c. Use daily, weekly and monthly DMA, DMACD, Stochastic, Detrended Price Oscillator
to determine if there is a higher time period direction and trend.

II. Plan the Trade
a. If the announcement is in the RIP direction:
i. Enter as soon as possible with a SUE > 0.5.
ii. Hold for change in technical indicators.
b. If the surprise strong enough to go against RIP:
i. Enter a trade with SUE > 1.5.
1. Retracement on the same side of the 3x3 DMA.
2. Use alternate entry points if not a F3 or F5 retracement
ii. Hold until first bar in the opposite direction or technical indication.

III. Trade the Plan
a. The Announcement – Use visual SUE scales to determine the magnitude and
direction of the unexpected surprise component of the announcement.
i. Current month’s announcement.
ii. Revisions to prior month.
b. Initial Spike and Retracement
i. 3x3 DMA
ii. DMACD
iii. Detrended Oscillator
c. FibLevels for Entry, Stop and Profit Objectives
d. Brokerage Report - 42 Pips

For a pdf file containing charts for this trade, please email info@quartustrading.com,
Subject: NFM Trade – 5 Oct 07.

Best regards and good trading,
Quartus Trading LLC
__________________
Analysis by Quartus Trading LLC

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